SNAP stock just went IPO, March 2,  2017, only a couple months ago. Millennials ate it up, and learned a fast lesson in the stockmarket…or did they?

You can go out and read articles on CNBC.com and other news agencies about why the hard lesson is a such a great thing because it actually got us young adults to learn more about the stock market, but here’s the thing, they all made a lot of money and then lost a lot of money really fast. Historically, this is what happens, so why did so many young people fall for this?

I guess because we think we know everything. We think history is just something that is there, but really not relevant to us. We think that because this is a new technology that has never been seen before in history that suddenly the rules don’t apply.

Another reason, we don’t do research. If anyone had done 5 minutes of research  they would have found this article written March 1st, 2017 in the money section of TIME.com that suggests SNAP maybe isn’t such a sound investment, but even if we happened to see it, we would have dismissed it as unsound advice going back to point number 1 – we know everything and this article is written by a bunch of old guy’s who don’t understand, right?

If you messed up, that’s ok, it was a good learning experience, but here comes time for another.

Snap’s investors and employees still have stock that were locked up and are about to be allowed to sell them . Read about it here at Recode.com.

The first 200 million investor shares will become eligible for sale on Monday, July 31st.

The second 749 million employee shares will most likely become eligible for sale Monday August 14th.

People think the stock is going to decline simply because of the basic principle of supply and demand. There will be a ridiculous amount of extra stock available, but I have another idea. I think that the same thinking process that caused millennials to rush to the market and buy SNAP stock at the IPO, will cause them to strike again. Only this time it will be a different group.

When the SNAP investors begin selling their stock on July 31st, they will be gobbled up by millennials just as fast as they hit the floor driving the prices higher  (my prediction is around the $23/share mark)

The market will flatten out and stabilize over the next 2 weeks until the Employees are able to release their larger portion of stock. Due to the sudden uprise of the stock prices after the first wave of investor shares, us millennials will be more willing to buy again driving prices up even further (pred. ~$26 mark – potentially higher) mostly because we don’t do any critical thinking of our own, or research – especially historical research and believe that if it went up last time, it will continue to go up…and it will…for a short time.

Sooner rather than later the market will begin to stabilize again. Those who bought the investor shares looking for the short term gain will sell. Those who stuck it out during the IPO are excited, but not stupid, sell. As prices drop people who held on a little longer, will begin to wonder if they made a mistake. The prices will drop further.

By the beginning of September 2017, the SNAP stock will be stable again, but this time it will be even lower due to there being so many more shares available. I’m predicting a modest $10/share, but SNAP is seriously overvalued and could drop even lower than that.

If I am right, the good news is that if you buy SNAP stock now, you can ride the market up and short on the way down and make a ~270% ROI.

Is SNAP a good long term investment? Probably not, as faith in their CEO, Evan Spiegel, is limited because he is 27 years old, has little experience, and is competing with Facebook offering a lower value to businesses at a high price.

Could it be a badass short-term investment? HELL YEAH!